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BANGKOK RED-SHIRT PROTEST - Final Comment...
June 29, 2010 [by Larry Chao]
(June 29th, 5:00pm) What a difffence a month makes. Everything is back to normal, and Bangkok is still standing. The huge casualties from the dispersment of red shirt protesters never happened. Other than the burned out World Trade Center, there is little evidence that anything happened to Bangkok over the past three months.
The red shirt leaders are now being given "due process." No doubt they will get away with a slap on the wrist and return either in a more covert way or en masse again with a better plan.
Sad, but everything the red shirt protesters do/have done moves the country backwards. When I look at the burned out World Trade Center, I can't believe how the protesters could have even fathomed of doing something so destructive. I can't believe people can get away without being rightfully punished.
So now we sit and hope that calmer heads will prevail and Thailand can move forward, without tripping itself. Unfortuntately, as long as the red shirt convicted leader is running around the world free, there is always the threat that something awful will happen that will further set us back.
(June 2nd 4:00pm) For the past two-days, the Thai Parliament held its no-confidence debates, where the opposition - represented primarily by the "Pueu Thai Party MPs" and government MPs went head to head.
The opposition, which supported the red shirt protesters, tried to accuse the government - PM Abhisit and assistant PM Suthep of unnecessary violence/shootings and burning the City.
The government accused the red shirts of harboring the so-called "Men in Black," who infiltrated the red shirt protesters and used military weapons against the army.
Some of the opposition's evidence was laughable. For example, obviously "doctored" sound clips of the PM trying to incite the red shirts to come down to Bangkok from Isaan to fight, name calling and idle threats.
All in all, the debates were just wasteful protocol from what I could see. So much unnecessary mud slinging will breed a lot of contempt on both sides. Sadly, the more the two sides debate like this, the more divisive and fractured Thai society becomes.
We are not out of the woods by a long shot. Discontent among the red shirts is very high.
May 21st 3:00pm) The protest is over. Two days ago on Wednesday, May 19th, the army cracked down and secured the protest site from the red shirt leaders.
The leaders have been arrested and sites where they were besieging in central Bangkok have been reclaimed. Only 6-7 people were killed among the thousand protesters. A success, given that everyone feared hundreds might be killed during the dispersal.
While the City returns to normalcy - power, water, telephones restored; looting and grenade tossing controlled, the political strife is hardly over.
The red shirts have just "retreated" for a while, but they will not be satisfied by this outcome.
To some in the international world, they represent democracy and the struggle of the poor to get a bigger piece of the pie.
To others, the red shirts are violent protesters who broke the law and created untold chaos and disrupted the lives of others.
Thaksin Shinawatra, the former Thai PM who has funded the red shirt protesters operations has painted the red shirts as poor victimized Thais struggling for democracy. The Thai government led by PM Abhisit has argued that the red shirts have broken the law and are trying to force the government comply with their demands.
Of course, the truth probably lies somewhere in the middle. Nevertheless, we hardly care about the truth. What is much more important is to create a path to restore trust, dignity and respect for others, and then to follow it.
(May 17th noon) Brutal fighting over last two days. Unbridled chaos between red shirts and army. I don't have to go into details as you have all seen it in the news. But a few highlights... the Reds are defiant and angry, especially at the shooting of their "spiritual militaristic leader" Seng Daeng. I mean he was gunned down in cold blood by a sniper with deadly accuracy. Army denies, but come on, who did it? Lee Harvey Oswald?!
No end in sight. Center of Bangkok a mess, but still, the rioting is contained. I am 3/4 of a kilometer away. There are explosions nightly and gun fire. Army checkpoints set up on street in front of where I stay to check cars, but no violence near me.
The risk is that more red shirts will pour into Bangkok from upcountry and wreck havoc all around, including "surrounding" the army which is surrounding the red shirts.
That potentially could be millions of people, as ousted PM Thaksin Shinawatra is their leader, and remember, he received THE MAJORITY of votes when he was elected. That was millions!!!
Government needs to end this soon. The longer the unrest goes on, the worse it gets for the government. If too brutal, a coup is the only answer, really.
(MAY 10th 2:00pm) The stalemate between the red shirts and govenment continue. The red shirts are trying to create a "counter road map" for the government to approve. Then they will disperse.
Meanwhile, other factions of Thai society, the "multi-colored shirts" and yellow shirts vehemently oppose PM Abhisit's peace proposal. They believe dissolving Parliament in November as proposed is too early. They do not believe the government should be threatened to do it by so-called red shirt terrorists.
The small window for peace is closing fast. This week [but I've said this over and over again before] is most crucial for securing win-win negotiations, but the more delay, the less likelihood for a reasonable compromise.
We are on the precipice of either more violence or an uneasy peace. Meanwhile, red shirt protesters continue streaming into Bangkok and the police and army stand idly by.
(MAY 4th 10:00am) Last night PM Abhisit offered up a five conditions for peace reconciliation to the red shirts. Most importantly, he also agreed to hold re-elections six months from now in November instead of his previous offer of nine months. From what I understand, the red shirts reacted positively, and we will know if they accept it in three hours.
The five conditions are basically "motherhood and apple pie." They are: All groups should prevent drawing in the monarchy in any political conflict, everyone should try and provide those less privileged with greater opportunities, mass media must be controled to avoid the spread of hatred, independent committee must be set up to investigate the deaths during this protest, everyone should brainstorm solutions to make the Constitution more fair.
Just generalities. But probably good enough for the tired and frustrated reds to accept... let's see what happens this afternoon. It could all be over FOR NOW, in a few hours.
Strange how the two sides have been bickering over a few months here and there. Honestly? I don't think it really makes a material difference one way or another. Certainly not worth the loss of so many lives and heavey disruptions.
(APRIL 30th 9:30am) Relatively quiet yesterday, except for an evening inspection of a local hospital near the red shirts protest area by a bunch of red shirts checking for soldiers. This morning the red shirts apologized for the intrusion.
Today, ex-PM Chavalit goes to meet Abhisit and Suthep on charges of subversion. That will be interesting, as Chavalit is mad! I've never seen him so mad. Chalerm, another Thaksin supporter was also threatening to seek no confidence vote now, but he too backed off.
It is interesting how Thaksin is obvious by his absence. Normally he video links to the reds or conferences with them, but over the past several days, we have not heard a peep from him, except some suspicious Twitters and obviously doctored Facebook photos.
Maybe the rumors about him being very ill or dead are true? Maybe Chavalit and Chalerm are the new torch bearers for the reds?
Until I see or hear Thaksin live, I will assume he is out of the picture for good, or very ill. It is very unlike him to be quiet, especially after so much involvement early on. These protests are very important for him and for him to make excuses that he is doing deals overseas and does not want to get involved with what is happening in Bangkok now is total nonsense.
(APRIL 29th 3:00pm) Yesterday afternoon, the red shirts and government had a short, but vigorous firefight just north of the City. One soldier was killed about twenty total people wounded. The soldier was allegedly killed by friendly fire. The red shirts had been trying to go to "Thai Market" a huge place where vendors bring their produce to sell in Bangkok. The red shirts were trying to unblock a government barricade at Thai Market.
Their plan failed, but still it is another disruption to city life. Last evening was quiet and today, Thursday, still quiet. The red shirts are appealing to the EU to have then look into the government's use of deadly force in surpressing them, while the government continues to investigate terrorists among the red shirts and grenade attacks. Actually, this is pretty ridiculous.
The red shirts are clearly breaking the law. It is time to either disperse them or resign. Lots have talked about anarchy and lawlessness, but no one is doing anything about it. Yes, it is welcome that the army stopped the red shirts yesterday, but things remain the same at the red shirts stronghold in the middle of the City at Ratchaprasong intersection. The army did seize about 70 grenades from the red shirts yesterday, which is a relief and a worry too. How many more lethal weapons do the red shirts have? When will they use them?
(APRIL 28th 11:00am) Tick, tock, tick, tock... the deadlock continues as both the government and red shirts threaten each other. Sometimes it feels like they are talking to a third party instead of addressing each other directly. Today, the red shirts will march outside of their enclave to protest around the City. The government has warned them that if they do, they will be stopped with force. We've heard this same song and dance for weeks, but nothing has happened. The public is getting restless. We are tired of being held hostage by the red shirts, but even more tired of the government not protecting our rights and freedom.
(APRIL 24th 11:00am) Is a truce in the offing? The Army General Anupong has declared he will not use violence, contrary to the Prime Minister's declaration that the protesters will be dispersed by escalating means. Hmm... who is really in charge? The red shirt protesters want a dissolution of the government and re-elections in 30 days. The Prime Minister Abhisit said six months. Whatever the time period, I think Abhisit will never be re-elected, so haven't the red shirts already won? Stay tuned. If there is a re-election and pro-Thaksin politicians are back in power, look for the "yellow shirts" to start protesting. And we all know what they did to our airport a couple of years ago!
(APRIL 23rd 8:45am) Last night, red shirts allegedly threw 5 grenades at local residents at Silom/Saladaeng intersection, killing at least 3 and injuring 75. Meanwhile army helicopters flew reconnaissance missions over the red shirt protest enclave in preparation for what looks like a huge dispersal battle today.
At 7:30 this morning, police at Silom/Saladaeng intersection ordered red shirts to move or they will "tear down their barricades." Red shirts have ignored this warning. Stand by...
The government has been unable to deal with the red shirt protesters. Now the citizens of Bangkok have had to fend for themselves. Huge rallies are scheduled today to protest against the red shirts. All hell will break loose if Prime Minister Abhisit does not disperse the red shirts. No one wants violence but all negotiations have failed to date.
Red shirts want the governement to dissolve Parliament immediately; Abhisit is asking for six months. Sad that only six months is the difference between potential anarchy and the start of a peace process without violence.
I wonder whether Abhisit even has the power to do anything, or if a coup is looming?
(APRIL 22nd 9:30am) A civil war looms in Bangkok. Since the government has not taken any action to remove the red shirt protesters since their failed crack-down on April 10th, another group of citizens calling themselves the so-called "multicolored shirts" have gathered to oppose them from across the street.
Last night was filled with skirmishes between the two groups where over 20 people were injured from thrown bottles, slingshots and rocks.
The very real risk is that these multicolored shirt anti-red shirt protesters will grow in number. Tomorrow they promise to rally 100,000 supporters in a different location
We are on the brink of a civil war, as the governement stands by and watches. While there is still room to negotiate, the opposing parties seem to want to take this one to the very end.
Everyday is frightful, as people in Bangkok wait and wonder how and when this impasse between the red shirts and government will be resolved.
(APRIL 19th 4:00pm) I just avoided the volcano eruption fall-out last Thursday when I took off from Amsterdam, otherwise I'd still be stranded in Europe! No one is sure how long it will take for the volcanic ashes to clear so flights can resume.
Meanwhile back in Bangkok the stand-off remains between the red shirts and the government. Red shirts have been running circles around the government. A raid to capture one red shirt leader Arisimun failed last Friday. In a bizarre twist of events, the red shirts ended up taking two police officers hostage!
As of now, the red shirts latest threat is that tomorrow they will expand to Bangkok's business district on Silom Road. But the army is already there waiting for them, so the red shirts have not confirmed that they will do this. Both parties have people now perched on tall buildings to monitor each other more effecitvely.
Time is ticking down for the government to take more action. The opposition yellow-shirts have demanded that the government remove the red shirts from their encampment on Rajaprasong, or else they will take action themselves in seven days.
It seems we are on the brink of civil war, unless Parliament is dissoved immediately, or the red shirts are prepared to concede to a six month lead time preceding dissolution.
Neither option looks likely at the moment.
(APRIL 12th, 9:00am) Yesterday was quiet after brutal clashes between red shirts and riot police Saturday night (10th) near Phan Fa bridge and Rajdamnoen Avenue that left 21 people dead and 850 injured. Right now both government and red shirts are scrambling to see who shot who, the use of live ammunition to kill people had not been condoned. Conspiracy theories are all over.
Meanwhile, Abhisit hangs tenuously on as Prime Minister. Rumor has it he is about to offer up to dissolve Parliament in 6 months instead of 9 months. This is still not the 15 days that the red shirts want.
But if I were him, I would just leave office. What's the difference?
If you stay around and try to negotiate, you are finished anyway. Staying 6 months versus leaving within a month is only a five month difference. Isn't five months worth more deaths, injuries and devastation to Thailand's economy and reputation as a peaceful, wonderful resort?
I'm off to Amsterdam for a workshop. I'll be back in Bangkok Friday morning April 16th. But I'll comment from time to time on major developments while I am away.
(APRIL 10th, 1:00pm) Yesterday was wild. Government troops were overwhelmed when red shirt protesters seized Thaicom, their satellite TV station. The red shirts also easily beat off an attack by riot police at Rajprasong intersection yesterday evening too.
Abhisit went on TV to say again that what the red shirts was doing was breaking the law and he was going to arrest the leaders and bring things back to normal. But when?
It is the same old story and people are getting bored. It is becoming a nuisance more than anything. However, the "yellow shirt" PAD protesters are more upset. Within a few days, they will likely do something to solve the red shirt demonstrations in Bangkok, if the government fails to succeed.
This morning, government troops took back the Thaicom satellite TV station. This has enraged the red shirts, who thought they had a deal with the police to keep the satellite signal on, if the red shirts left the station. Obviously, the government did not agree. More skirmishes to come...
(APRIL 8th, midnight) Prime Minister declared a state of emergency last evening (7th), but since then, the government has done virtually nothing to slow down the red shirt protesters. They still occupy Rajprasong intersection and are running around the City invading Parliament, TV stations and other major intersections.
Finally, tonight, arrest warrants were issued for the red shirt leaders. I wonder if that means anything. I empathize with Abhisit. The red-shirts are using innocent women, children and old people as human shields. It is difficult to use force on "innocent" people who are protesting only because they have been paid to do so.
Imagine the outrage if pictures of women and children are killed. No one will understand why. Thus, the impasse and problem remain. Tomorrow, Friday, the red-shirts promise the biggest rally of all, before dispersing around the City again. People are losing patience with the governments inactivity.
(APRIL 7th 3:00pm) Here is a quote from the Bangkok Post newspaper recently between General Anupong, head of the army and Prime Minister Abhisit:
"An army source from the Centre for the Administration of Peace and Order (CAPO) said the army chief believed that so far there was no justification to move in and break up the United Front for Democracy against Dictatorship rally.
He said Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva had asked Gen Anupong to consider all possible steps to maintain law and order.
'What will we do next if we cannot disperse the crowds? We need to uphold the sacredness of the law,' Mr Abhisit was quoted as saying.
'We can't [use force] since it will cause losses,' the source quoted Gen Anupong as replying. 'They all are Thais.'
I think this says it all. The government has literally done nothing to stop the red-shirts, except to feebly block them from moving from their protest site yesterday. Every minute that passes without reprimand, is a victory for the red-shirts.
Abhisit needs to at least inform people of his plans, not just pin his hopes on what men like Anupong will not do. (APRIL 7th early morning) The red-shirts have reinforced their ranks and are cautiously optimistic about their "victory" yesterday. Today, they will announce their plans for the day. A smart move. Now the government can't prepare to contain them. And they are in at least two places - Silom Road, a business district, and Rajprasong, a tourist district. Both are at the heart of Bangkok. Occupy these two locations and you've crippled the City.
Abhisit must act. The time for eloquent arguments, protocol, debating and one-upsmanship is over. People need him to firmly remove the protesters, otherwise he will have to give in to their demands, lose face and lose his premiership.
(APRIL 6th midnight) Today was all about the government telling the red-shirts what not to do, and then the red-shirts doing it anyway. Throughout the day, the red-shirts seemed to dare the police and army to stop them. Yet after their initial face-off in the morning, it was all red-shirts. They are now camped out in two of the busiest intersections in Bangkok.
If you look at some of the pictures of the protesters with the police, they seem very chummy - laughing together shaking each other's hands, police wearing red bandanas... maybe I'm hallucinating, but the police seem very reluctant to block the protesters. They retreated very quickly after their initial confrontation. That was a bit strange. Do they even support the government?
Throughout the day, Abhisit said he would move the protesters, but would not use force. He mentioned that he had sent in the riot police and army just to remind the protesters that what they were doing was illegal. Are you kidding me?
(APRIL 6th 11:30am) Army, police facing off against protesters. Government spokesmen have just announced that they will use stronger force to remove the protesters. On TV, you can see huge swaths of soldiers gathering around the protesters. You can also see the protesters mobilizing. This could turn violent.
The red-shirts are there to fight and win, not give in. Sadly the crowd is mixed with tough looking men, old women and children. Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva has reacted, but it might be too late. He has been playing the waiting game and refuses to use force to remove the protesters. This is admirable, but the red-shirts are determined to see him dissolve the government within 15 days, not the 9 months he is offering. They will create problems until they get what they want.
If we can make it through today without any violence there is a ray of hope. However, the longer the red-shirts disrupt life in Bangkok, the more upset Abhisit's supporters in the City become.
(APRIL 5th, midnight) A Thai civil court refused to issue an injunction preventing the red-shirts from blocking Rajprasong intersection. The court said Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva already had the authority to remove them. Yet Abhisit either failed to know this; knew this and is just trying to buy time; or asked the court because he did not want to be responsible for inciting a violent removal of the protesters.
Whatever the reason, it is time for him to act. Already the government has ordered the red-shirts not to block several areas of Bangkok. But the red-shirts have insisted that they will block these areas tomorrow.
This afternoon, the red-shirts also forced the Elections Committee to render a verdict on dissolution of the Democratic Party on the grounds that it accepted illegal campaign contributions. This verdict will be read on April 20th. It is a no win situation. If the EC finds the Democrats innocent, the red-shirts will protest this verdict. If the EC finds the Democrats in violation of election protocol, they are finished.
Khun Abhisit has painted himself in a corner with his inaction. He has tried to play the waiting game or shifted blame for any confrontations with the red-shirts on the courts. His strategy is to let cooler heads and fairness prevail. His rationale might be that it is the only way to keep the military and police on his side, as they do not want to face off against the people. Some might even support Thaksin, a former policeman himself.
Even in his televised negotiations with the red-shirts earlier this month, Abhisit was trying to be conciliatory and compromising. But he has badly misread them. They are desperate and are being led by a desperate, man. They will not listen to reason, fair play or compromise. They are bent on destroying Abhisit and the incumbent government. Now they have the upper hand with moral victories at the EC and with the civil court.
I saw the red-shirt leaders on TV this evening. They look rejuvenated. Abhisit's next move must be to enforce the law and remove the protesters by whatever means. His patience is becoming his Achilles Heel. He must be bold, take some risks. More delay will buy him nothing.
(APRIL 5th, 10:30am) All conventional diplomatic paths have been exhausted.
It has become painstakingly clear, that the red-shirt protesters want only one thing: For the current government, including Prime Minister Abhisit to resign in 15 days to pave the way for new elections [and of course the return of Thaksin Shinawatra].
Abhisit has offered several olive branches including negotiating terms and timing for House dissolution and “resetting political rules and regulations” to level the playing field for all political parties.
These are good win-win negotiation tactics, but the red-shirts do not want to negotiate. They want win-lose.
They know the government will not accept their demands, so it will be forced to fight. Fighting can only result in chaos, which plays into the hands of the red-shirts.
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